With weekend series ahead, there are just 10 MLB games on Thursday, but that doesn’t mean the slate is devoid of enticing opportunities for prop betting.
The pregame narrative: The Chicago Cubs should shine against some soft Pittsburgh Pirates pitching, Juan Soto has a chance to show he’s more than a walk machine, and a 33-year-old journeyman finds a pitching matchup perfectly tailored to his talents.
Check out our best MLB prop picks for April 21.
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MLB prop picks overview
- Seiya Suzuki over 0.5 runs (-115)
- Juan Soto over 1.5 bases (+140)
- Charlie Culberson over 0.5 hits (-133)
Top MLB prop picks
Best bet: Suzuki over 0.5 runs (-115)
Suzuki has taken the major leagues by storm early in 2022, posting a .387/.565/.839 slash line and establishing himself as a clear Rookie of the Year favourite.
Read more: Blue Jays vs. Red Sox prop picks
While he can’t stay that hot forever, his underlying skills are extremely impressive. His combination of raw power, discipline and speed is extremely hard to come by. Just 12 games into his career, Suzuki’s Baseball Savant page already looks Mike Trout-esque:
He may not become the best player of his generation, but he’s got all the skills to score runs at a prolific clip — even playing for a Cubs team that projects to be middle-of-the-pack offensively.
Suzuki has only scored in half of his games so far, but he also opened the season hitting primarily fifth and sixth in the batting order. Now he’s been moved up to the two-hole, and Suzuki has bigger bats behind him to cash him in.
On Thursday, the rookie also benefits from a plus matchup against Bryce Wilson — who has a career ERA of 5.54 with a 5.55 FIP to match. Right-handed hitters, like Suzuki, have lit up the 24-year-old to the tune of a .293/.344/.513 line in his career, and Wilson has lost 1.1 mph in fastball velocity early in 2022.
Key stat: Suzuki has been on base 25 times in 12 MLB games.
Read more: Blue Jays vs. Red Sox betting picks
Soto over 1.5 bases (+140): Because Soto walks so much, he isn’t the first guy who pops to mind for total base props. Still, the rate he’s hit this prop in 2022 (42.9%) exceeds the implied probability of this line (41.7%).
Also, Soto has the luxury of facing one of the worst starters in baseball. Among the 67 pitchers who’ve thrown at least 150 innings since the beginning of 2021, Zach Davies ranks 65th in ERA (5.78) and dead last in FIP (5.50).
Culberson over 0.5 hits (-133): Betting on a role player like Culberson is far from glamorous, and these odds could be more enticing. That said, the utility man holds a .287 career batting average against left-handed pitching and almost never walks against southpaws (4.1%). He also has six hits in 11 at-bats versus Seattle starter Marco Gonzales.
Odds courtesy of Sportingbet as of 11:15 a.m. ET on 04/21/2022.
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