Red Sox vs. Blue Jays picks and odds: Back Toronto to grab early edge behind Stripling


After a comfortable win on Monday, the Toronto Blue Jays look to clinch their first series win in more than two weeks with another victory over the Boston Red Sox.

The pregame narrative: Toronto leans on the suddenly reliable Ross Stripling while Boston counters with Michael Wacha, who shut down the Blue Jays with six innings of one-run ball in April.

Find our best Red Sox vs. Blue Jays picks for June 28 below.

Red Sox vs. Blue Jays picks overview

  • Blue Jays to lead after five innings (-113)
  • Blue Jays over 4.5 runs (-136)
  • Red Sox to outhit the Blue Jays (+112)

Red Sox vs. Blue Jays picks

Best bet: Blue Jays to lead after five innings (-113)

Tuesday’s game features a pitching matchup between two righties who profile similarly. Both Stripling and Wacha put up lacklustre results in 2020 and 2021 before impressing this season. Neither has electric stuff, and it’s hard to bank on either one keeping up their current pace.

We like Wacha to be the starter to show his true colours in this game. Although he has a better ERA (2.34) than Stripling (3.08), the underlying numbers favour the latter by a significant margin.

Pitcher xERA FIP xFIP fWAR
Stripling 3.48 2.86 3.49 1.3
Wacha 4.42 3.97 4.11 0.9

Wacha has done a good job preventing extremely hard contact, but his overall statistical profile suggests he’s been the beneficiary of a combination of good luck and good defence.

Stripling, on the other hand, has come by his results more honestly. He’s also radically changed his pitch mix, dropping his fastball rate from 50.9% to 32.5% to emphasize his slider and changeup.

The 32-year-old hasn’t become an ace overnight, but his great results are backed by substantive changes. It’s less clear that the same can be said for Wacha, so we like the Blue Jays to thrive early in a battle between two talented offences that are rolling.

Key stat: Stripling has 1.31 ERA since rejoining the Blue Jays rotation on June 6.

Read more: AL Cy Young odds

Quick picks

Blue Jays over 4.5 runs scored (-136): There’s serious juice on this wager, but the Blue Jays have been the league’s best offence by wRC+ this month (141). They’ve averaged 6.2 runs per game in June, and cleared this bar 68% of the time. If Wacha stumbles at all, this shouldn’t be a tough bar to clear.

Red Sox to outhit Blue Jays (+112): This pick may seem counterintuitive in relation to the others, but Boston has more hits than any team in baseball — and has allowed 48 fewer than Toronto this season. There’s also a strong chance the favoured Blue Jays only come to bat eight times in this game, which could be the difference here.

Even though Toronto has dominated this season series 6-2 in 2022, they only have one more hit than Boston in those eight games, suggesting this is a good value at positive odds.

Odds as of 9:10 a.m. on 06/28/2022


Nick Ashbourne writes about sports betting for NorthStar Bets. NorthStar Bets is owned by NordStar Capital, which also owns Torstar, the Star’s parent company. Follow him on Twitter: @NickAshbourne

Disclaimer This content was produced as part of a partnership and therefore it may not meet the standards of impartial or independent journalism.

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