Rays vs. Blue Jays Game 1 prop picks and odds: Keep backing Bichette’s heater

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After winning a nailbiter against the Tampa Bay Rays on Monday, the Toronto Blue Jays host a doubleheader against their divisional rival.

The pregame narrative: Alek Manoah is in a position to thrive in this matinee, and should go deep into the game while piling up strikeouts. On the offensive side, Bo Bichette is having himself a month — and that’s likely to continue.

Check out our Rays vs. Blue Jays prop picks for Game 1 of the doubleheader on September 13.

Odds as of 10:06 a.m. on 09/13/2022.

Rays vs. Blue Jays Game 1 prop picks

Best bet: Manoah over 5.5 strikeouts (-112)

Manoah’s declining strikeout rate has been a consistent storyline this season, but on Tuesday he shouldn’t have much trouble posting a respectable K total.

The Rays have the fifth-highest strikeout rate in the majors against right-handed pitchers (24.0%), and their lineup has struggled against Toronto’s right-hander. Manoah has faced current Tampa hitters 75 times and posted a 28.0% strikeout rate.

He’s also allowed that group to hit just .134 and slug .164 against him. That makes it less likely this prop blows up due to general ineffectiveness.

Manoah’s recent form is also encouraging. This is a line he’s consistently gotten the better of lately as his strikeout rate over his last five games has well exceeded his season-long average (indicated by the dotted line in the graph below):

That per-batter strikeout rate pairs nicely with a higher innings total than he’s posted over any other five-game span this year.

The combination of Manoah’s success against the Rays and his recent production gives us confidence that six strikeouts aren’t too much to ask for on Tuesday.

Key stat: Manoah has a K/9 of 9.0 in his last five starts, clearing this line in four of those outings.

Quick picks

Bichette over 0.5 runs (+132): It’s not exactly creative to back Bichette these days, but it is savvy. The shortstop has scored a run in 10 of his last 11 games this month, crossing the plate 15 times during that span.

He’s also the only Blue Jays hitter with multiple career hits against Tampa Bay starter Jeffrey Springs. This isn’t a gimme in what figures to be a low-scoring game, but the payout is generous.

Manoah over 18.5 outs (+110): We’ve already outlined the case for a strong day from Manoah, but 19 outs is a lot to ask for considering he’s gone over this total in just 10 of his 26 starts this season.

Even so, we’re happy to take the over here because of not only the matchup but the circumstances. In the first game of a doubleheader, the Blue Jays will be incentivized to push their starter as far as possible.

On Tuesday the team starts a crucial stretch of seven games in six days — and a few pitchers like Trevor Richards, Yusei Kikuchi and Julian Merryweather may still be unavailable after Sunday’s bullpen day.

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Nick Ashbourne writes about sports betting for NorthStar Bets. NorthStar Bets is owned by NordStar Capital, which also owns Torstar, the Star’s parent company. Follow him on Twitter: @NickAshbourne

Disclaimer This content was produced as part of a partnership and therefore it may not meet the standards of impartial or independent journalism.





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