Parameters of Western resolve to defend democracy may soon be tested

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In the novels featuring detective Harry Bosch, the main character has a saying that ‘everyone matters, or no one matters’. Democracies are the same. If one is not worth defending, why are any of them? This is an argument most reasonable people are likely to understand. But it will take more effort from governments (including our own) to build a deeper understanding of the issue.

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Second, hard choices will need to be made in the coming months (not years) about national commitments to defence. This includes one’s own nation and to democracies under threat. For this reason, the new Australian defence review is timely. And just as Australia has provided an international exemplar in resisting Chinese coercion and aggression, perhaps this review – and hopefully the enhanced deterrent capabilities that emerge from it – might do the same for democracies wavering about increased national security expenditures.

One thing is certain – our nation will not be able to defend itself, and stand by its commitments to international law and the defence of democracy, without a significant increase in funding for the military and domestic civil defence. Australia, as a responsible, wealthy member of the international community, will need to do much more to both deter the chance of the “two war” scenario, but also be ready to fight, and win, if it does eventuate.

Third, Western nations, including Australia, will need to plan for a massive expansion in capacity to produce military equipment, munitions and military forces. This is not military mobilisation as some have described – it is something very different and much larger. It will demand national mobilisation of industry, diplomacy, economic capacity and human capital. This will require very difficult political decisions, and strong leadership, on the allocation of national resources in our country and others.

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Back to Lenin’s maxim. The second part is “if you hit steel, you stop”. The steel in this story is the collective willingness of Western democracies and their citizens to build and sustain the will (and patience) to do what it takes to defend their freedoms and those of others. And we must demonstrate this will in the military, diplomatic, information and societal domains soon.

It may be the only thing that deters the showdown with a “West in decline” that two ageing, ruthless dictators in Beijing and Moscow appear to be forcing upon us all.

Mick Ryan is a retired ADF major-general.

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