With a full slate of NFL games on Sunday, player prop options are plenty.
The pregame narrative: Tyreek Hill is ready to exploit a thin Buffalo Bills secondary, David Montgomery is set up for success against the Houston Texans and Adam Thielen is flying under the radar on the Minnesota Vikings.
Check out our NFL Week 3 prop picks below.
Odds as of 2:43 p.m. on 09/23/2022.
NFL Week 3 prop picks
Best bet: Hill over 74.5 receiving yards (-114)
We featured this pick in our Week 3 parlay best bets but believe it holds solid standalone value.
Hill debuted as a member of the Miami Dolphins with a tidy eight-catch, 94-yard game. He followed that up by torching the Baltimore Ravens to the tune of 190 yards and two touchdowns. We’re expecting his third act to be just as impressive.
Buffalo’s defence has been elite this year, but the injury bug seems to have arrived early.
Micah Hyde and Dane Jackson have both been ruled out, while Tre’Davious White remains on the IR. Jordan Poyer is practicing but his role may be limited.
We expect Hill to feast with three — possibly four — members of Buffalo’s vaunted secondary unavailable.
Dolphins head coach Mike McDaniel also appears to be a studious man. Hill has torched this Bills team time and time again as a member of the Kansas City Chiefs, going for 172 and 150 receiving yards respectively in back-to-back playoff matchups.
Look for McDaniel to exploit similar weaknesses against a now-thin Buffalo secondary.
Key stat: Hill’s 25 targets are the third most of any player through two weeks of action.
Montgomery over 69.5 rushing yards (-117): Montgomery was the centrepiece of Matt Eberflus’ gameplan against the Packers last week and we figure that will continue against the Texans.
The fourth-year back rumbled for 122 yards on 15 carries while Justin Fields only threw the ball 11 times.
Houston’s rush defence looks suspect, too. Jonathan Taylor rushed for 161 in the season opener while Javonte Williams netted 75 yards on the ground last week.
Thielen anytime TD (+123): With Justin Jefferson taking over as the undisputed WR1 in Minnesota, it’s easy to forget about Thielen. The 32-year-old receiver has scored the fifth-most touchdowns of any player since 2019 (30) and is unlikely to be held off the board much longer.
He led the team with 52 receiving yards against the Eagles, and while that number isn’t necessarily impressive, it demonstrates his value when Jefferson is constantly double-teamed.
We expect Detroit to use Monday’s game as a blueprint and dedicate most of its resources to slowing Jefferson, which should allow Thielen some space in the red zone.
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