The widest discounts correspond with periods when there weren’t enough ships whose owners were prepared to carry Russian crude. But since the invasion, a host of new tanker operators have amassed a fleet of ageing vessels, many of which would previously have been sold for scrap, to transport Russian oil. Those rusty old tankers have raised concerns in the United Nations about an increased risk of a major oil spill. UN officials are also worried about the practices some of the ships have adopted of turning off the transponders that signal their position and of transferring cargoes from one ageing vessel to another.
As this shadow fleet carries a larger and larger proportion of Moscow’s oil shipments, so the discount for Russian cargoes against international benchmarks — the primary measure of success for the price cap — has narrowed.
And although laudable in its aim, the price-cap mechanism lacks teeth.
Shipowners merely need an affidavit from the cargo owner that the consignment was purchased at a price below the cap. But there has been no appetite to check, and there’s no way of telling if what’s written in the affidavit is true. There is no realistic chance that either the seller (a Russian oil company) or the buyer (most likely a newly formed trading company set up far from the scrutiny of the US Treasury) is going to be found out if the affidavit is false.
The result is that there is no enforcement of the cap. About 40 per cent of vessels lifting crude from Russia’s Baltic and Black Sea ports were owned by companies based in countries signed up to the cap. A large number also still have insurance routed through London.
Revising the price cap to a level closer to market prices might leave some cargoes trading below the new limit, but it would do nothing to restrict the Kremlin’s income. Improving enforcement and banning rusty old ships would alleviate the risk of an oil spill, but there seems to be no appetite for anything that might hamper Russian oil flow.
With crude trading near $US95 a barrel, up about 27 per cent since the end of June, that’s no surprise.
Scrapping the cap would make no difference to the amount of Russian crude on the market — it would flow just as it has done throughout the war in Ukraine. With sufficient ships already available to carry all that oil, it’s unlikely it would make any difference to the price either. What it would affect is the quality of the vessels being used to haul the oil and who’s earning the fees for doing it.
If Western shippers are allowed to carry and get insurance for Russian cargoes, a good part of the trade would probably find its way back onto vessels that are properly insured, well maintained and rigorously inspected. Authorities are generally wary of allowing ageing vessels into their ports — several ships have been forced to wait weeks before being permitted to offload Russian cargoes in India and China.
The oldest tankers now engaged in the Russian trade would then likely end up on the beaches of Bangladesh, India and Pakistan, where they would be cut up for scrap, averting what seems like an inevitable environmental disaster the longer they continue to haul crude halfway around the world.
Better still, if Russia has already paid billions of dollars for those old ships, it would become a wasted expenditure.
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