Guardians vs. Blue Jays prop picks: Expect Gurriel Jr. to come through


The Toronto Blue Jays need a win against the Cleveland Guardians on Sunday to produce their first series victory of August.

The pregame narrative: Lourdes Gurriel Jr. is facing a starter who suits him, Shane Bieber has been getting deep into games consistently and Matt Chapman’s bat has been sizzling.

Check out our Guardians vs. Blue Jays prop picks for August 14.

Guardians vs. Blue Jays prop picks overview

  • Lourdes Gurriel Jr. over 1.5 total bases (+128)
  • Shane Bieber over 18.5 outs (+128)
  • Matt Chapman over 0.5 hits (-120)

Guardians vs. Blue Jays prop picks

Best bet: Lourdes Gurriel Jr. over 1.5 bases (+128)

With Kevin Gausman and Bieber facing off on Sunday it could be a tough day for the hitters, but Gurriel could be the exception.

That’s because Bieber’s style plays right into his strengths. The right-hander has a low-velocity heater (91.0 mph), which makes his success predicated on his wipeout slider.

Considering the breaking ball is a truly elite pitch (-11 run value) that’s not normally a problem for Bieber, who throws it to right-handers 50.4% of the time.

Unfortunately for the Guardians starter, Gurriel has been one of the best slider hitters in baseball over the last four years.

Season Run Value vs. Sliders MLB Rank
2019 +8 24th
2020 +5 9th
2021 +9 20th
2022 +6 23rd

Add that performance against sliders to the additional opportunities Gurriel is getting out of the leadoff spot — plus his recent run of outstanding production — and you’ve got a recipe for multiple total bases.

Key stat: Gurriel has the highest batting average in the major leagues since June 1 (.353).

Read more: Guardians vs. Blue Jays picks

Quick picks

Bieber over 18.5 outs (+128): Giving your team more than six innings against a quality lineup isn’t easy, but these odds are appealing considering Bieber has cleared this line in 52.4% of his starts this season.

The right-hander had a rough outing against Toronto in May, but current Blue Jays hitters have hit .243 and slugged .392 against him — middling production that suggests this lineup doesn’t have his number.

Chapman over 0.5 hits (-120): We don’t see Sunday’s game as a smash spot for Chapman, but we’re attracted to the limited juice for a modest base hit here. The third baseman has been the Blue Jays’ best hitter by wRC+ over the last 30 days (212), hitting .325 during that span.

Chapman’s high walk and strikeout rates can depress his hit total, but he has a knock in 58.8% of his games this season while the implied probability on this line is 54.5%.

Odds as of 9:56 a.m. on 08/14/2022.


Nick Ashbourne writes about sports betting for NorthStar Bets. NorthStar Bets is owned by NordStar Capital, which also owns Torstar, the Star’s parent company. Follow him on Twitter: @NickAshbourne

Disclaimer This content was produced as part of a partnership and therefore it may not meet the standards of impartial or independent journalism.

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