Best NBA prop picks December 5: Fade Suns’ Deandre Ayton on the glass

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There’s no shortage of NBA action on Monday with eight games on the schedule.

The pregame narrative: Deandre Ayton could struggle to produce a significant rebound total against a team that erases centres on the glass, Jalen Green is in the midst of a shooting slump and Dillon Brooks’ role has grown in Memphis since Desmond Bane got injured.

Find all our best NBA props picks for December 5 below.

Odds as of 10:06 a.m. ET on 12/05/2022.

NBA prop picks

Best Bet : Ayton under 10.5 rebounds (+100)

Considering Ayton has averaged just 9.7 rebounds this season and fallen short of this line in 61.9% of his games, this even-money bet offers rare value.

The centre has the ability to put up colossal rebound totals at times, but there’s no reason to believe he’ll do that on Monday.

His opponent — the Dallas Mavericks — has been excellent at restricting big men on the glass, allowing centres to grab the third-fewest rebounds per game in the NBA. Ayton went under this total in his one matchup with Dallas this season, albeit by a single board.

The Suns centre will also enter this game at a significant rest disadvantage as he’ll be playing on the second leg of a back-to-back, with both of those games coming on the road. Dallas, meanwhile, is at home after having Sunday off.

Not only will Dallas have fresher legs than Ayton, but Phoenix Suns coach Monty Williams is also more likely than usual to be cautious with his big man’s minutes — or pull him from the game early if it becomes uncompetitive in either direction.

Key stat: This under has hit in five of Ayton’s last eight matchups with Dallas. All three times the over hit, it did so by a single rebound.

Quick picks

Green under 21.5 points (-105): Green has the talent to go off in any given game, but Monday could be tough sledding for him.

The Philadelphia 76ers have the second-best scoring defence in the NBA (106.6 points/game), and the absence of offence-first guard James Harden should help them guard on the perimeter.

Green is also in the middle of some shooting struggles. He’s hit this under in six of his last nine games and shot over 40% in only two of his starts during that time.

Brooks over 17.5 points (+100): Normally you don’t want to bet overs against the Miami Heat, but the defence’s strength is the interior (thanks to Bam Adebayo), not the perimeter, where Brooks lives.

Since Bane went down with a toe injury, Brooks has averaged 19.8 points per game and hit this over in six of 10 appearances. That isn’t just hot shooting, either.

The Canadian took 14.1 shots per game when Bane was in the lineup and that number has shot up to 18.7 without him.

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Nick Ashbourne writes about sports betting for NorthStar Bets. NorthStar Bets is owned by NordStar Capital, which also owns Torstar, the Star’s parent company. Follow him on Twitter: @NickAshbourne

Disclaimer This content was produced as part of a partnership and therefore it may not meet the standards of impartial or independent journalism.





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