In order for the San Francisco 49ers to carry their epic winning streak all the way to the Super Bowl, they’ll have to get past the Philadelphia Eagles on the road in Sunday’s NFC championship game.
The pregame narrative: Jalen Hurts and DeVonta Smith have been killing it lately, and we think the Eagles will need to take to the air against the 49ers’ dominant defence. Also, Deebo Samuel hasn’t proven to have a steady rapport with his rookie QB yet.
Check out our best 49ers vs. Eagles prop picks for the NFC championship game.
Odds as of 1:14 p.m. on 01/27/2023.
49ers vs. Eagles prop picks
Best Bet : Hurts over 224.5 pass yards + under 59.5 rush yards (-104)
The 49ers have the No. 1 ranked total defence in the NFL, but they allow far more damage through the air than on the ground.
|Play style||Attempts allowed/game||Yards allowed/game|
|Pass||34.9 (21st)||236.8 (20th)|
|Rush||22.9 (1st)||77.7 (2nd)|
It follows that fewer rushing attempts have led to fewer yards allowed, but the efficiency of this San Francisco run defence is also a factor. The Niners held opponents to 3.4 yards per rush this season, which was the second-stingiest rate in the league.
Combine all of that with the fact that Hurts is still dealing with a shoulder sprain. He’s been restriction-free and “ripping” the ball in practice, according to his head coach, which is a great sign for his passing opportunities.
But a heavy load in the running game could risk re-injury, and against a group this talented it might not be worth trying.
Hurts has thrown for 240.9 yards per game this year. He’s also cleared this passing line in three of his past five games. The exceptions were a pair of blowout wins over the Giants.
Also, the star quarterback has fallen below this rushing line in 10 of 16 games, averaging just under 50 yards per matchup. Combining his passing and rushing trends on two safer lines gives us near-even value.
Key stat: San Fran has allowed 225-plus passing yards in five of its past eight games, yielding an average of 249.8 yards in that span.
Smith over 66.5 receiving yards (-115): The Alabama connection between Hurts and Smith is showing up at the season’s most critical juncture, so we’re backing the Slim Reaper to get it done on Sunday.
Smith has seen eight-plus targets in nine consecutive games, which certainly helps our cause. Though he only turned a team-high 10 targets into 61 yards last week, he’s still averaging more than 85 yards over his past nine starts.
Samuel under 75.5 rushing/receiving yards (-114): Christian McCaffrey’s calf issue could theoretically lead to more opportunities for Samuel, but last week he turned a season-high snap count (95.1%) into an inefficient 56 scrimmage yards.
McCaffrey practiced in full on Friday and will surely do what he can this weekend. We’ve only seen Samuel clear this line in six of 15 games all season, including just once in four of Brock Purdy’s starts.
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